ADN

I don't know if this can be fixed or not, but I'd like to rant...

If I start a player with a projected fantasy output of 18 points, and he doesn't do shit, it's cool...But how come we must start a defense and it can HURT the team..? This past week, not that it would have mattered, the fucking Seahawks got ROCKED...I looked at my fantasy output and they had -15...What gives..? Obviously they didn't help me, but how can it be allowed for them to HURT my team..? I also started Blount, the RB from Tampa Bay...He didn't do shit, I got only 4 points...Which is cool, but when I start a Defense and they shit on me, I should just get 0, not actually lose points...That doesn't happen at any other position...

Yeah that's the tricky things with D. You gotta play the matchups or it'll kill ya. I wouldn't want to have any defense right now that's going up against the Giants O. They may be the hottest offense in the League this year.

Of course with that being said I notice you are playing me this week so a bit of advice completely on the level...pick up Dallas's D. I just like to help.

darklighter1 wrote:Yeah that's the tricky things with D. You gotta play the matchups or it'll kill ya. I wouldn't want to have any defense right now that's going up against the Giants O. They may be the hottest offense in the League this year.

Giants are a top 10 team in passing offense (Eli has, I think, 15-18 TDs on the year) , top 5 running offense (Bradshaw is the all-around workhorse, Jacobs is the change-of-pace bruiser with 7 TDs) , and the Giants have a top 5 defense (second in passing defense, 2nd in run defense, i think).

Every SINGLE year people underestimate the Giants when they start off slow, but they always get rolling right around this time. The problem was, last year, it also stopped when December came around, and they missed the playoffs.

(I really shouldn't like the Giants, given that I am a 'Skins fan, but I'll admit, Big Blue's color scheme, especially their helmets, are my favorite color in all the NFL. the Colts unifroms last Sunday night were also cool to see.)

At this point, tho... the early-season (midway) MVP favorite QBs are Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning (in that order).

Skill position players rarely ever get the credit, but at this point: it's Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, and a split between Calvin Johnson / Roddy White (in my opinion).

On the defensive side of the ball, I'll nominate Clay Matthews, LaRon Landry, and Lawrence Timmons.

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Uber: the Seahawks got creamed 41-7, and you're asking why the defense cost you so much? Even in standard scoring leagues, they received -4 pts, but they got off way too easy. In this league, you are rewarded big, but there are also pitfalls to QBs who get sacked and throw picks, RBs who can't hold onto the ball, WRs who can't catch (it'd be kind of cool to see any fantasy service incorporate "dropped balls" into their scoring system) AND defensive-mismatches. If your starting defense can't hold off your opponent from scoring at will, it will cost you dearly.

Not why it cost me so much, but why it cost me at all...

I do my research...Hot offense or not, the G-men have been averaging 27 points a game, and that's including the two 40 pointers they popped on the shitty Cowboys and the Seahawks...They scored 14 against the Colts...10 against Tennessee...17 against the Bears...28 against the Lions...And 31 against Carolina...

Why am I looking at that and going hmm, the G-men are about to go off..! The Seahawks, for the most part, have been a good solid start week to week...

There isn't a science to this...I'll blow the first guy that can prove they knew Peyton Hillis and the Browns were going to run rough shot over the Pats last week...Starting a Pats D against a Browns offense staring a rookie 3rd string QB seems like the smartest move you can make...9 out of 10 "experts" would have said you did yourself a solid...Tough luck, in a game that is 88% luck, just blows IMO...

If there was a way to penalize wideouts for drops, or qb's for incomplete passes and pick 6's, it would be cool...But for a defense to be able to take me out of a match is just scary...Like I said, it wouldn't have mattered to me this week anyway, but I'm just saying...In the future we might wanna consider figuring out something to off set that...

Every year I'm excited to play FF....and every year as the weeks go by I realize once again that FF relies almost entirely on luck...and anyone who tries to define it as more of a skill thing...is probably just the guy who has gotten the luckiest recently with it.

Drew wrote:Every year I'm excited to play FF....and every year as the weeks go by I realize once again that FF relies almost entirely on luck...and anyone who tries to define it as more of a skill thing...is probably just the guy who has gotten the luckiest recently with it.

Hm. I'll have to disagree wih you there, Drew. This is by far my most "intensive" FF season, (managing a total of 12 teams, and "commissionering" half of them) and while I did get a fair number of the same number of players drafted, like the Arian Fosters, Ahmad Bradshaws, Roddy Whites, Andre Johnsons, Zach Millers, and Aaron Rodgers of the league, each and every one of my teams is different, and I've had to re-adjust accordingly. Half of my leagues score PPR, 25% include return yards, some penalize sacks and QB INTs more, I'm in 3 standard leagues on 3 different sites, I've gotten involved in two IDP leagues this year (by far, the most fun, and sometimes, most tragic) and I've come to realize practice does make this game just a bit more "perfect".

I've come a long way since just last year, when I didn't even know how the ESPN draft room looked like, but in all of my leagues, I have a winning record (save for one, where I'm 4-4, and it's only because I keep starting B. Marshall and sitting Peyton Hillis, and then my kicker decides this is the week he's going to aim low and try to get 3 points at most). I'm also the top-scoring team in 9 of my leagues, and nowhere below top-3 in the rest of them.


Anyway, I sometimes get shafted in the draft, or some other guys get wise to this year's Miles Austin before I even realize what team he plays for, and constantly, I am cursing at any kicker who wears green on their uniform. But still... through it all, I manage to win consistently. Did I ever tell you about the time (last season) my team, in mid-season form, and with about as finely-tuned a roster as you can have, had a record of 0-5-1? I was thinking of just abandoning the team, as I didn't know or have much invested in this fantasy league, but I stuck it out. And because of it, I went on a streak, and won 7 of my next 8 matches and snuck into the playoffs as the 4th seed with a final tally of 7-6-1.


Moreover, I won 10 of my 12 matchups this past weekend, and I was leading by a sizable margin in the other two in which I lost (in one, my opponent had only TO playing left, he scored 26 points total, and beat by two measly points, 109-107. In the other, opponent had Mendenhall, Ben, and Nugent, I think playing, and he beat be a margin of less than 10 points.)


Sure, most of this pastime is luck: 35% draft day, 25% daily maintenance and casual knowledge, 10% scheduling, and 30% "luck", in my terms... but. I do't know how I'm going to finish this thought. Maybe I am just lucky. I participated in 9 drafts this year, missed 1 completely, and entered in the mid-way into the 5th round in another 2 leagues, yet... yet, the only really debilliating draft decisions I made, either in terms of injury of complete underperformance, was drafting Tony Romo, and drafting Jermichael Finley (both in the same league). Besides those two instances (oh! and thinking that Owen Daniels would be "just fine" by week 3) I sidestepped a fair amount of headaches and excessive Sunday afternoon *groans.

Uber: I understand how unlucky it must seem for you, me, us, on any given Sunday watching something you would have bet 10 times out of 10 would never even be close to coming to fruition, but like any good television series, each and every week needs to have a really great "surprise", something that makes you go "holy cow".

I know I wasn't sweating much concerning my last two undecided matches on Monday Night, because I had a ~30 point cushion in both instances, and my opponents only had their hopes resting on TO or Ben+Mendenhall. I ended up losing both those matches by very slim margins, all because Carson Palmer decides he wants to turn in another one of his "classic" garbage-time shootouts. I hate that guy. :curse:

About your gripes with the defense: I never saw the Seahawks defense as a good one this year. It's mostly an iron veil: They held two of their opponents to less than two scores, and that's what maybe got them most of their points scored for the year, but at the time they stepped onto the field against the Giants, Seattle was in the bottom half of the league against the rush, and the bottom quarter of the league against the pass. The Cleveland Browns have a real-life "better" defense than most, but it doesn't translate well into fantasy. I'd say the same the about the St. Louis Rams, but their fantasy team defense is actually pretty excellent so far. Two of the preseason favorites, Baltimore and Minnesota: they have been two of the worst DEF for big points all year, and might actually have cost you a few.

DL1 is right: unless you play the matchups, and somehow avoid one of those weekly "surprises", or if you were lucky enough to own the 2008 Steelers, the 2009 Jets, or the 2010 Titans (so far), it's an ebb-and-flow sort of thing. In my estimation, negative points are a crucial factor for every single league (tho I don't know how to implement them into IDP yet) and the two positions most likely to get you into a bind are: the clay-handed QB, or the paper-tiger DEF/ST. Kickers also factor in here, but unless you got a Nick Folk or a Kris Brown trotting out for a boot, it's a relatively low-scoring sure-bet for cheap points.

Each and every week, I am amazed at how my Arizona Cardinals are usually still fighting into the fourth quarter against seemingly over-matched teams, and again come every Monday morning when I notice their DEF/ST is once again near the top 5 at their position. It's the highest scoring defense this season, (standard scoring) would you have guessed that? I'd never start them, though, because I usually look for a team defense for 1) that has a legitimate chance at winning the game and 2) does not rely solely on the return game to pad a bad team showing.

I for one totally disagree about defenses. Yes there's a lot to be said for luck in fantasy, but there's something to be gained by choosing the right defense each week. Many players, like yourself, don't value the importance of putting a good deal of thought into defenses and rather see them as nothing more than an afterthought.

First, let's look at why Seattle was a bad call last week. Yes, for the most part they have been decent, but they already had 2 weeks of negative points (wk2 v.Den -5, wk9 v.Oak -7). Look at their points allowed for the season, in 7 games they had an avg of 24+ ppg, and that's w/ 2 games of 10, and 6. A quick look at our scoring settings and you'll see that avg gets you -3pts. Not exactly world beaters. Plus they were just coming off a beat down from the Raiders (-7pts), who while better, are hardly the Giants on offense. And that was w/ their 2 best pass catchers (te-Miller, wr-Murphy) both ineffective due to injury. Another way defenses score are turnovers. They only have 3 games w/ more than 1 turnover, wk1 v.49ers, qb-smith is a turnover machine, wk3 v.SD, that entire offense has been handing out turnovers like candy on halloween, and wk7 v. Ari, again crappy qb play and rb's who fumble a lot over their careers. The Giants for the most part have been very careful w/ the ball, so I don't see how one could count on turnovers when they only get them when teams give them away. Count on a kick return? No way, no how. First they are really hard to get, and they only have 2, both against SD who have shown week in and week out they have the worst special teams in the league, if not ever, this year.

That's all the Seattle "not good" stuff. Let's look at why the Gmen were a bad matchup. Look at the points they scored the previous weeks, 34, 28, 41, for an avg of 34+ ppg or -9pts (almost -15 @ 35 ppg). The defense points in those 3 games, 0, 0, 1. That offense was on a roll. Not to mention they had a bye week to heal up and prepare for the Seahawks.

There was just no real upside value to the Seahawks D last week. Add to that they started their backup qb for his first real NFL action ever? Not a lot of hope for their chances of helping their def by keeping them off the field. The difference between this game and the Pats game, the Pats D has shown they can be run over by a good strong running back. The Pats D is very young (I say rubbish, sorry DL) thus McCoy starting was less of a concern since the Browns are a run first team, where the Seahawks, despite the crappy Marshawn Lynch, throw first.

Plus there's a reason I have 2 of the top 5 scoring D in the league this year. I see hidden value in them. I picked up the Steelers when they hit the waiver wire on their bye week (wk5). Not that I needed them, but because they do all the things that score you points in fantasy very well. Both they and the Bears have 2+ turnovers in all but one game this season. Plus they avg 15+ppg (Pit) and 16+ppg (Chi) or +3pts in fantasy scoring. Both ppg, and turnovers are strong factors for me in picking a defense week to week. Chicago also has 3 dynamic kick returners so there's always the opportunity for free points from a kick return td. Plus, and I'll admit I didn't know this till today, we get points for kick return yards. Just another way to gain points from your defense. It's just like any other position, you just have to find the value and weigh the risks. You have to weigh the rewards (to's, sacks, td's) against risks (pts against, and to a lesser degree yards against), just the penalties are much greater because there are many more ways to score points.

And FYI, this is the first season where I have not played matchups week to week off the waiver wire w/ my defenses. I draft them late so usually I get a lower tier defense, like the Seahawks and usually Bears, and just take my chances week to week. Just got lucky the Steelers fell into my lap.

Plus if you really feel like it's too much of a risk, you can always "bench" your defense and take the "0".

Although my other leagues have it as an understanding that that strategy is frowned upon. Same as "benching" a MNF guy because you have a 1 pt lead and your opponent is done for the week to avoid a "Grossman". I seriously saw him kill a 8pt lead one year w/ a -10.