ADN

That's gross man.

erokero85 wrote:Count on a kick return? No way, no how. First they are really hard to get, and they only have 2, both against SD who have shown week in and week out they have the worst special teams in the league, if not ever, this year.

I really liked the entire thought you put into your reply, ero, yet at first, (with the way you were opening yur argument) I thought you were disagreeing with me, and not Uber.

About the selected quote, though... I mean, no one should ever count on a kick return score to help them out each week, but as I see it, The Seahawks are not too dissimilar from the Cardinals (and Stephens-Howling) in that Leon Washington has been pretty money on most weeks for racking up the return yards. He's only got 2 scores, yes, but in the span of a 16-game season, 3 or more kick-return TDs for any given player is like the Randy Moss (circa 2007-2009) at their position. If I recall correctly, this league does count the Special Teams returns, albeit modestly at 25 yards per point (or is it 50?) ... that fact might have also helped the Seahawks look like a better defense than they actually were (but, had they actually played to half of their ability like they had all season,"Neon Leon", the nickname still works, might have helped Uber gain 4-5 extra points).


Speaking of defenses, if you had a uninhibited choice, and could play either the Vikings (@ Chi.), the Giants (v. Dal.), or the Titans defense (@ Mia.) this week, which would you rate the most favorable? Anyone see a marked step-above-the-rest play here?

You gotta go with the Giants with the way they're playing and the way Dallas has quit. Even with Garrett taking over he was still OC and that's the area where Dallas struggled most.

You guys make good points, but I don't think we're talking about the same thing...No matter what you say, this is one of the craziest NFL seasons to date...

First things first, with a 12 team league, who was an obviously better choice for than Seahawks D..? It's not like I could have made an obvious upgrade not considering hindsight...

I mean, lets just consider IO's question about which defense to start...You could argue either way man...dl1 says Giants, but with all the extra attention they'll be paying to Moss when he's on the field, CJ could have a fucking field day...You could just as well say too that having Moss on the field won't make a difference, and the Giants could crush them...We play probabilities...The Giants play well, but they also play inconsistently...There are no consistent teams in the NFL this year...

There isn't a stat, logic, or science to this guys, that's why they play the games...You can say all you want about what you put into your choices, but from week to week, there is always a chance that you can get shitted on...That's indisputable...And that's what I'm talking about...There isn't another position that has the possibility to net you negative points is there..? If that's the case, then why are the D's different..? That's all I'm saying...Week to week, we are already playing the odds...I start Adrian Peterson every week cause I know that he's consistent enough to do that...But just as well, you know that Brett could have a game and they can win with AD getting 15 carries for 60 yards and no touches...

My team is fairly consistent.

I think this is one of the most "consistent" seasons to date, because some of the predictables, as well as my preseason "predictions" are really coming to light. I knew the Bills and Panthers would be terrible this year, I actually (wildly) predicted that the St. Louis Rams have an outside shot at making the NFC Championship Game (just based on history, above-average defense, and the rookie QB who leads such a team) and I saw vast improvements to the Lions, Redskins and the trainwreck that would befall Dallas and Minnesota (in my playoff predictions two months ago, I left both of them out, on purpose.)

It's a stronger year for the league as a whole. Despite what the "experts" and media-takers at ESPN would have you believe, there are no world-beaters in the league right now. Th 'Any Given Sunday' philosophy applies more than ever now,, as each of the 32 teams has at least 2 losses or more. At this point of the season, there's around 15-legitimate teams that can be called "top 5", as well as around 12 teams that may be classified as "the bottom 5". Subjectivity.

Despite others talking about the AFC being the "elite" conference, in head-to-head contests of "the best", the NFC actually holds a slight lead in these rumbles (the Cowboys and Redskins really bring the average down, though). You probably saw it last night. An Atlanta team that is flying under the radar just beat (in some great fashion) the Ravens; the very same team that went to Pittsburgh and came out with a W, and went to the Meadowlands and stuffed a sock into the Jets.

It's parity. The keyword to the 2010 NFL regular season.

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And Uber: while no other position on your roster has a higher chance to negatively impact your points scored than your starting defense, so long as it is at least a defensible position, and you believe in a replayable contest, 8 out of 10 times, you can honestly see your DEF can limit your opponent to less than 24 points, (4-5 scores) and also chip in a couple sacks, and a turnover or two. The only bright spot I see with the Seahawks DEF/ST is Leon Washington. (same with the Vikings - only constitent option that scores points for the Vikings' D is Percy Harvin, and that's ONLY bbecause return yards count towards the team pts.)

But, last year, I believe in the very same Minnesota @ Cardinals game, Adrian Peterson went for 16-22 carries, and may have gotten a maximum of 39 yards in that one contest. Had he fumbled in that game, I don't remember if he did, ANd if he lost the ball, he would have scored you 0 points for the entire contest. Last night, Michael Turner scored only 3 or 4 points. If a QB only throws INTs (Joe Flacco @ Cinn ; Eli Manning v. Car.) then there is a higher possibility they net you negative points in this format, and even higher if the head coach thinks you are replaceable with the backup (here's looking at you, Alex Smith). Kickers, if they only get 3 chances for a field goal, and they miss two sub-40 yards boots, then they most certainly will score you into the red.

The point I'm trying to make is because of the myraid of ways a team defense can accumulate points, via a sack, interception, fumble recovery, return TD, interception TD, fumble returned for a TD, reutn yardage (this is making the "/ST" live up to its billing), and to a lesser extent, total yards allowed - less than 200 total offensive yards, as well as the ever-familiar 'points allowed' AND the chance it goes to Shutting-out the opponent; the team defense can be one of the highest scoring positions, week in, week out, so long as it is consistently dominant, always applies the pressure, and has a knack for forcing big plays.

In exchange for its versatility, however, there should and there are limiters to how well a defense performs, and this is measured more evidently in total points allowed - so long as your team doesn't give up TDs like a nickel gumball machine, it should be fine. Nearly every team in the league gets 1 or 2 turnover chances in a game, on average, and rarely do even the elite QBs avoid taking sacks in long stretches of consecutive games. Those are gimme points. You just need to weigh the risk of "tanking" (negative pts) versus the rewards (how probable it is for this particular defense this week to a) pitch a shutout or b) come away with multiple turnovers, QB hits, and a defensive score) - that's the formula.

I'm sure I saw Vernon Davis, as consitent as he has been for me since mid-way last season, into mid-way this season, I believe at least once, when I looked at my fantasy team's box score, he had a -1 next to his name. Negative points are fickle and uncommon, but they do have a chance to happen to any position at any time.

Every position has the chance to get you negative points. A guy could turn the ball over 4 times and then get benched/hurt and bang, neg points. It's the same thing. The only reason a D has such a large penalty is because at the start of the game each defense starts out w/ 19 pts (I think it's 12, but in reality it should be 19 according to the settings). What other position starts the game w/ points in hand? Defense is just different. It's about managing the risk/reward.

Ube, how about this, I'll predict the three IO's defenses and see how they rank, if I'm right, you give me AP. If I get the order wrong, or any get neg points, you can have any non-"can't drop" guy from my team, if two of them get neg points you can have any guy from my roster. Deal? It's all "luck" right? And yes I know it looks just like the "expert projections".

1) Titans (best bet for 10+), Giants (widest swing, could be #1 but best bet for neg), Vikings (single digits, about 5)

Switching to another topic, so I take it nothing is going to happen with regards to my waiver complaint? I see my petition to have my trade rescinded was denied also. I still don't see how that's fair, but what ever. There is no way that IO should have had the #1 waiver. Our league settings are set to inverse order of standing each week.

Oh, and IO, if you ever adjust my roster again without my permission or at least notifying me first, I'll quit.

The problem I see with trusting the Giants over Dallas again is the last time they play, 2-3 weeks ago, they allowed the Cowboys to rack up half of their total scores in the last 6 min. of the game. That totally killed me in a few leagues where I was starting them, and thinking I was doing well to have gotten 10-11 pts - at the end of the game, I only received 2 pts from the Giants' D in that contest, even though they were wholly dominating for 52+ minutes of the game. Risk/reward at its most exemplary (garbage-time points).

- - -

When did I adjust your roster, ero? I adjusted Drew's roster only this week (because I asked him if he was still playing).

The only thing I did today was process our pending trade.
By the way, ero, could you do me a favor? Do you have a screenshot program?
I wanted to see what your waiver report looked looked like for Nov. 11, (this past week) and Nov. 4.
The order to everything, has been turned upside-down.
As LM, I can see every waiver claim, even those that are unsuccessful, in the week it processes. (I'd like to see if you can see the same thing I can. I'll be sending you a screenshot as well.)
The problem, however, is that it is only available for the immediate week (in previous weeks, it just shows as a numbered list, without the emboldened-red claims that didn't go through.)

This would help immensely.

Wait... I glazed over this part

Switching to another topic, so I take it nothing is going to happen with regards to my waiver complaint? I see my petition to have my trade rescinded was denied also. I still don't see how that's fair, but what ever. There is no way that IO should have had the #1 waiver. Our league settings are set to inverse order of standing each week.

I'm looking over the details as we speak, but where was this 'trade rescinded' remarked, exactly? I haven't seen anything in my inbox, and TT has been fairly busy as I see it, so if you messaged him instead, he wouldn't have been able to moderate it in time anyhow (as I remember it in my groggy morning state, our trade was meant to process at around 2 am this morning, but when I did my daily check at 6am, it was still pending, so I let it go through.) If you feel the trade was in 'bad faith', and would like it reverted, please message me before 11am or 12pm (EST) by tomorrow, and I'll see what I can do. I'm sure I have the power to put our roster back in place, but I'd like your go-ahead, and some time to figure out how to do it right.

I also looked for an option in which any other team manager could have stated their reasons as to why they would protest the trade, but I think they need to e-mail the LM directly. The trade review option has only two options - uphold it, or veto it. There's no option for viewing 'protests', so I'd guess if anyone would have a problem with any trade, they' need to message the LM directly, and state their resasons why.

About the waiver claims, I'm not denying your statements, but did you still have the claim for Johnson as of Thrusday morning, AND did it tell state that you were unsuccessful? When I checked it Thrsday night, when you mentioned it, and then the subsequent Friday morning, it showed that 4th and Loooong had his second claim for Johnson (his first priority player was someone else) , and the same with Uber (he decided to pick up Dez bryant first). I can't verify for the past week, but I did not have #1 claim priority. It was Drew (I'm assuming this, but he rarely claims anything. He picks up FA on Friday-Sunday instead), then Michael, then Uber; then some kind-of mix-up between yourself, Ryan, me, and DL1 happened there. Half of the claims processed on Thursday have disappeared from the main league page, or are in a different order than what is seen on the official waiver report, so I'm very glad you brought this to my attention. And believe me, I can't make anything on the front page just go away, as those are league-wide announcements.

Ero, one of the best pieces of advice I ever got was when I heard, "Never gamble unless you are willing to lose..."

I don't think I said that this game was all luck, just a high percentage...I didn't say that you couldn't accurately study stats, trends, conditions, and tendencies, to bolster your predictions...

If you want to impress me, start a thread in which you pick the week's games and lets see how that goes...Just like they do on TV...What I notice is that if you're good, you might be able to go .500...So, if you want AD, how about you lace up and correctly predict 75% of the games that come on next week...The skill you have in picking D's should translate nicely, yeah..?

I have an open Yahoo! NFL pick em league that is entirely barren (except for me and one friend of mine).
For anyone that wants to join, um... I have forgotten how to invite others.
It's confidence-based (meaning if you highly believe the Pats will beat Steelers Sunday Night, no doubt they will win, you place your confidence as the highest, or at 16, but because 4 teams are o bye this week, it's 14 pts.) and open through the playoffs.

I don't know. It's already set up if any of you feel the need to prove you can beat everybody on ESPN, CBS, FOX, or wherever else when it comes to picking matchups. (I say a coin can do just as well as I have for this season, but, it's not as much fun.) Now that the byes are done, though, there's 16 chances every week to prove that you are better than your fellow competitor, and I suppose if both parties agree to terms, trades can be negotiated based on the outcome of your "wagers".

I'll leave the link up on the next page if at least 2 or 3 of you think it may be a welcome distraction /addition to our NFL banter.